It’s still January – and there are more Uncertain Times ahead.
This edition, we talk about:
- Will OpenAI ads be a $25 billion business by 2030? The $1 M trial starts now
- Youtube-first BBC shows are close. We explain why it’s good strategy for the Beeb
- ‘They have development. They have recruiting. They have HR.’ Inside SE Asia’s ‘scam compounds’ where thousands work in cybercrime
OpenAI ads are here: Is a $25B revenue stream loading?
OpenAI has begun testing ads in ChatGPT for US adults on Free and Go subs. For a company facing a projected $14 billion loss in 2026, the move is a financial no-brainer. Launching ads is expected to bring in $1 billion this year, and internal forecasts eye a massive $25 billion by 2029.
With nearly 1 billion weekly users sharing their specific needs in real-time, OpenAI isn’t just chasing Google’s $300B search throne – it’s capturing high-intent data that traditional search engines can only dream of.
800M weekly active users
(10% adults globally)
2.5B prompts daily
In the US – 28% use Ai chatbots weekly (18% in the UK)
Unlike the ‘interruption’ model of Meta or the ‘query’ model of Google, ChatGPT ads will appear at the bottom of responses, acting as a next step in a user’s problem-solving flow. From February, the ads will start appearing on a cost-per-view model.
The ‘ad-free AI’ era is ending, and the ascent of the conversational storefront has begun. This marks a pivotal shift for Sam Altman, who once called ads a ‘last resort’.
“We now know that select advertisers are already participating in ChatGPT trials. It’s so important that brands are thinking about their strategies now – otherwise, they risk being invisible from the off.” James Bavington, StrategiQ Chief Product Officer.
Why the BBC is heading to YouTube
The ‘metric flip’
YouTube has officially overtaken the BBC in UK audience reach. According to December 2025 Barb ratings, YouTube reached 51.9 million viewers, edging out the BBC’s 50.8 million.
While the BBC still wins on ‘time spent’ (people watch longer sessions on iPlayer), YouTube is how the UK discovers video. This shift raises the question: if the majority of the population is on a third-party platform, how does the BBC justify a mandatory TV licence fee?
The ‘YouTube-first’ shift
To stay in the game, the BBC is finalising a landmark deal to create bespoke, original programmes for YouTube. Previously, the BBC used YouTube for clips and trailers to bring people to iPlayer. Now, they will premiere full shows on YouTube first. The new focus? Think BBC Three-style factual entertainment and sports designed to recapture the 16–34 demographic that’s exited traditional TV.
Our view: It’s a smart move. Whether you’re a legacy broadcaster or a private business, showing up where your customers spend their time is just good strategy.
The $20 trillion shadow economy: Cybercrime goes corporate
By late 2026, the global cost of cybercrime is expected to cross $20 trillion – the second-largest economy on Earth, trailing only the US. An FT investigation has pulled back the curtain on this threat. What’s most surprising? It’s a professional, global enterprise.
The heart of this industry lies in ‘scam compounds’ across Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. These are lawless Special Economic Zones where the line between crime and tragedy blurs:
- The workforce: Estimates suggest up to 500,000 people have been trafficked and enslaved in these compounds, forced at gunpoint to commit cyber fraud.
- The context: When COVID-19 shut down physical casinos, these gangs switched overnight to online fraud, using their existing money-laundering infrastructure to move billions in crypto.
The new playbook of deception
For brands and media companies, the threat has evolved from simple data breaches to total identity theft.
- Scammers now use phishing kits to clone entire brand ecosystems in seconds. AI-driven ‘Smishing’ (SMS phishing) allows them to flood a brand’s customers with messages indistinguishable from the real thing.
- The ‘Deepfake CEO’: In 2026, a video call is no longer a guarantee of identity. High-value brands are now seeing live deepfakes used to authorise fraudulent payments or leak sensitive IP.
Our view: When consumers can no longer tell a deepfake from a real influencer, or a scam text from a shipping update, proactive transparency is the only defense. ‘Zero-trust’ payment protocols for example assume any digital request – even one with a familiar face – could be a deepfake.
To sum up
We’ll be keeping a close eye on the first wave of OpenAI ads in the US and the learnings we can take away for our clients.
Meanwhile, whether you’re a media giant like the BBC pivoting to YouTube or a brand fighting off ‘smishing’ clones, the lesson is the same: go where your audience is, but bring an ironclad way to prove you are who you say you are.
Sources and references
- Our approach to advertising and expanding access to ChatGPT OpenAi, 16 Jan 2026
- OpenAI could generate $25 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030, and that should worry Google, top tech analyst says Business Insider, 20 Jan 2026 2:03 GMT
- OpenAI and Broadcom announce strategic collaboration OpenAI, 13 Oct 2025
- Altman plans D.C. push to “democratize” AI economic benefits Axios, 21 Jul 2025
- How are Americans using AI? Evidence from a nationwide survey Brookings, 25 Nov 2025
- BBC could soon make programmes for release first on YouTube under deal Guardian, Friday 16 Jan 2026 15.29 GMT
- BBC close to agreeing landmark deal to produce shows for YouTube Deadline, 16 Jan 2026 2:15 GMT
- Scammers, spies and triads: inside cyber-crime’s $15tn global empire | FT Film FT, 18 Dec 2025