This week in The Uncertain Times, developments across advertising, search and regulation point to a broader shift: the economics of attention are being rewritten, and the rules that governed digital growth over the past decade are changing in real time.
This week we discuss:
- OpenAI Ads: The dawn of conversational media and the end of cheap intent
- Zero-click search: AI isn’t the only culprit. Paid advertising is swallowing the SERP
- Meta’s ad-free subscription: The monetisation of escape
- The CMA’s scraping consultation: Content is becoming contested territory
OpenAI ads: Paying a premium for presence
Last time, we discussed OpenAI ads landing in the US (rolling out from February onwards) and how brands need to think about their strategies NOW. This week, the shape of the model is coming into focus.
Early pricing is reportedly landing at $60 per 1,000 impressions – roughly three times the cost of Meta and and on-par with the cost of live ads during NFL games. This is prestige real estate.
And users who pay for premium can stay ad-free.
The high price and limited measurement could deter many advertisers from investing early. But the direction is clear – moving from CTR to conversation depth and sentiment will be the key success metrics in AI-driven journeys.
| Format | The “Old” Way (2024) | The “New” Way (2026) |
| User Action | Click a link and leave the results | Ask a follow-up question in the chat |
| Brand Role | Passive landing page | Active AI Brand Agent |
| Measurement | CTR/ ROAS | Conversation Depth & Sentiment |
| Lead Gen | On the Brand’s website forms | Directly inside ChatGPT |
| Checkout | On the Brand’s ecomm site | Agentic checkout inside ChatGPT |
Google, meanwhile, has announced the new Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), developed with major ecommerce platforms including Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target and Walmart. The aim is to support the ‘agentic ecommerce journey’, where AI systems play a more active role in shopping and transaction flow.
Taken together, both moves suggest the same direction of travel: commerce is shifting away from websites and toward interfaces.
Shopify merchants to pay 4% fee on ChatGPT checkout sales
This year, Shopify merchants selling directly through ChatGPT’s Instant Checkout must pay OpenAI a 4% transaction fee on top of existing processing costs.
While OpenAI is monetising this high-intent traffic early, rivals Google (Gemini/AI Mode) and Microsoft (Copilot) are currently waiving additional fees to gain market share.
Step 1: become indispensable. Step 2: charge rent.
eBay draws a line on buying agents
Not all platforms are moving in the same direction.
eBay has explicitly prohibited AI buying agents from transacting without permission, ensuring purchases still require direct human intent.
The move suggests a more cautious approach. AI may assist with discovery and research, but the final transaction remains a human decision.
For marketers, it’s a reminder that ‘frictionless’ is not always the only goal. In many categories, trust, reassurance and persuasion still matter more than speed.
After all, a perfectly frictionless purchase is meaningless if nobody believes what they’re buying.
From clicks to conversations
OpenAI has said advertisers won’t be able to influence organic results, and that ads will not be shown to users under 18 or during sensitive conversations involving health or politics.
The longer-term ambition appears to be conversational ads that allow users to engage with a brand inside ChatGPT, asking follow-up questions rather than clicking out to a landing page.
Advertising is moving from interruption-based media into a recommendation-based model, where interaction replaces exposure.
AI overviews may not be wholly to blame for zero-click search
Much of the past year’s debate around SEO has centred on AI Overviews and fears of collapsing organic traffic.
But new data suggests the collapse may be overstated. Organic search traffic is down around 2.5% year-on-year, with the largest sites seeing growth.
According to the study:
- Organic SEO traffic: -2.5% YoY
- Search engine traffic overall (2025): +0.4%
- Google traffic (2025): +0.8%
- Organic vs. paid clicks: ~90% organic, ~10% ads
- AI Overview CTR impact: -35% when present
- AI Overview prevalence: ~30% of SERPs
At the same time, analysts are pointing to a different driver – the increasing footprint of paid ads on the search results page. Ads are taking up more space and more clicks.
“There’s a decrease of zero clicks searches across major ecommerce SERPs due to the increasing number of ads (and more clicks going to ads, rather than organic search results)” – Aleyda Solis, SEO Consultant & Founder at Orainti.
In other words, AI may be changing search behaviour, but advertising is still reshaping search economics in more immediate ways.
The SERP is being commercialised, not summarised.
Paying to escape the Meta feed with ad-free subscription
Meta’s ad-free subscription option for Facebook and Instagram began rolling out to UK users last week, charging £3.99/month on mobile apps. A small fee, but a huge signal.
Users are increasingly being offered a choice: pay with your attention or your wallet.
For advertisers, it raises an important question about future reach. If more users choose ad-free experiences, the assumption of the feed as guaranteed distribution becomes less stable. What happens to the entire performance ecosystem built on interruption?
“My mum called me over because she almost bought it without realising – just a few taps and all sponsored ads would be gone! As more users weigh up whether or not they want to opt out of ads, brands will have to work harder to create feed-stopping moments and question whether they should convert elsewhere, all while bolstering their current organic social output.” – Jasmine Gilbert, Social Media Specialist, StrategiQ
CMA scraping consultation: Content becomes contested territory
The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is consulting this February on whether publishers and sites should be able to opt out of having their content scraped for AI summaries.
This is part of a growing regulatory focus on whether AI systems are extracting value from content without fair compensation or consent.
If opt-outs become standard, it will reshape how information is accessed and prioritised, placing greater value on quality content and authoritative sources over sheer volume.
This poses the question of who owns the raw material of the AI economy? For years, the web was assumed to be open. Now, content is being reclassified as an asset – something to license, restrict, protect.
“AI hasn’t killed the need for content as we feared…it’s actually exposed its value. If the CMA ruling goes ahead, the future won’t belong to the noisiest brands, but to the most credible.” Will Anderson, Chief Growth Officer, StrategiQ
The StrategiQ takeaway
Across all of these stories, the same pattern emerges:
- Conversations are replacing clicks
- Platforms are charging rent on intent
- Regulation is catching up
- Advertising is becoming optional, expensive and conditional
Instead of simply scaling through distribution, brands that want to grow need to think seriously about their strategy and positioning.
New Future Value™ belongs to brands that can think ahead.